“I had three breakout rules that looked tidy on a whiteboard. After the intensive I discarded two of them — the sample showed they only worked in the first hour after the open.”
Marcus H. · Sydney · Backtesting Intensive
Extended note: rewriting a failed retest setup
A Perth FX trader arrived with a “failed retest of broken support” idea that felt reliable on daily GBPUSD. Across eighty marked instances the win rate looked acceptable until we sorted by London versus Asian session. Asian-session failures clustered into long, choppy drawdowns. The intensive ended with two rule sheets: one session-qualified version kept for paper trading, and a discarded all-session version. No live signal followed — only a cleaner decision about when not to act.